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Home arrow Articles by Topic arrow Tsunami arrow How do LandCo's claims stack up? (Tsunami risk)
How do LandCo's claims stack up? (Tsunami risk) PDF Print
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Articles - Tsunami
Written by Steve Marshall   
Monday, 04 December 2006

What LandCo says:


Source: LandCo's detailed proposal

Comment

LandCo doesn't indicate the source of its map, but it appears to come from a report commissioned by the Northland Regional Council. That report says:
"The historic record shows that four moderate (1.0-5.0 m) tsunamis have inundated the east coast of the region in the last 150 years. The palaeotsunami record indicates that there has been at least one large event (or a series of large closely spaced events) in the last 600 years."
Tsunami hazard assessment baseline for the Northland region (2006).

For its table, LandCo decided to use 8 year old data from another source (Fraser 1998), rather than using a widely-adopted 2005 study that showed a much higher likelihood of tsunami damage in Northland. LandCo's figures show a 5 metre tsunami hitting Whangarei as a one in 14,500 year event, while the 2005 study shows it to be a one in 2,300 year event.


Source: New Zealand Tsunami Risk and Preparedness

Also, as you can see in the map below, Ngunguru faces a one-in-500 year tsunami of 4-6 metres, whereas Whangarei faces a one-in-500 year tsunami of only 3.2 metres.


Source: 500 Year Tsunami Map
"A new Government report identifying Northland as one of the parts of New Zealand most at risk of a tsunami comes as no surprise to Civil Defence officials in the region."
Northland tsunami risk not unexpected - officials
"In 1960 there was a wave of about three metres at Tutukaka Harbour now a popular Northland marina, and in the 15th century at Henderson Bay in the Far North there is evidence that a tsunami ran up at least 32 metres above sea level, although the wave may have only been seven metres high. Tsunamis have come in the past and they will come again to the region in the future says Tsunami expert Dr James Goff."
Tsunami – coming to Northland says experts

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